ⓘ Micromort. A micromort is a unit of risk defined as one-in-a-million chance of death. Micromorts can be used to measure riskiness of various day-to-day activiti ..

                                     

ⓘ Micromort

A micromort is a unit of risk defined as one-in-a-million chance of death. Micromorts can be used to measure riskiness of various day-to-day activities. A microprobability is a one-in-a million chance of some event; thus a micromort is the microprobability of death. The micromort concept was introduced by Ronald A. Howard who pioneered the modern practice of decision analysis.

Micromorts for future activities can only be rough assessments as specific circumstances will always have an impact. However past historical rates of events can be used to provide a ball park, average figure.

                                     

1. Sample values

Travel

Activities that increase the death risk by roughly one micromort, and their associated cause of death:

  • Travelling 6000 miles 9656 km by train accident
  • Travelling 6 miles 9.7 km by motorbike accident
  • Travelling 10 miles 16 km or 20 miles 32 km) by bicycle accident
  • Travelling 230 miles 370 km by car accident or 250 miles
  • Travelling 1000 miles 1600 km by jet accident
  • Travelling 17 miles 27 km by walking accident
  • Travelling 12.000 miles 19.000 km by jet in the United States terrorism

Other

Increase in death risk for other activities on a per event basis:

  • Being born – 430 micromorts on the day of birth
  • Ecstasy MDMA – between 0.5 and 13 micromorts per tablet most cases involve other drugs
  • Giving birth vaginal – 120 micromorts
  • Giving birth caesarean – 170 micromorts
  • Hang gliding – 8 micromorts per trip
                                     

2.1. Value of a micromort Willingness to pay

An application of micromorts is measuring the value that humans place on risk: for example, one can consider the amount of money one would have to pay a person to get him or her to accept a one-in-a-million chance of death or conversely the amount that someone might be willing to pay to avoid a one-in-a-million chance of death. When put thus, people claim a high number but when inferred from their day-to-day actions e.g., how much they are willing to pay for safety features on cars a typical value is around $50 in 2009. However utility functions are often not linear, i.e. the more a person has already spent on their safety the less they are willing to spend to further increase their safety. Therefore, the $50 valuation should not be taken to mean that a human life 1 million micromorts is valued at $50.000.000. Furthermore, the local linearity of any utility curve means that the micromort is useful for small incremental risks and rewards, not necessarily for large risks.

                                     

2.2. Value of a micromort Value of a statistical life

Government agencies use a nominal Value of a Statistical Life VSL – or Value for Preventing a Fatality VPF – to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of expenditure on safeguards. For example, in the UK the VSL stands at £1.6 million for road improvements. Since road improvements have the effect of lowering the risk of large numbers of people by a small amount, the UK Department for Transport essentially prices a reduction of 1 Micromort at £1.60 US$2.70. The US Department of Transportation uses a VSL of US$6.2 million, pricing a Micromort at US$6.20.

                                     

3. Chronic risks

Micromorts are best used to measure the size of acute risks, i.e. immediate deaths. Risks from lifestyle, exposure to air pollution and so on are chronic risks, in that they do not kill straight away, but reduce life expectancy. Ron Howard included such risks in his original 1979 work, for example an additional one micromort from …

  • Eating 100 charcoal-broiled steaks cancer from benzopyrene
  • Drinking Miami water for 1 year cancer from chloroform
  • Living 2 days in New York or Boston in 1979 air pollution
  • Spending 1 hour in a coal mine black lung disease
  • Spending 3 hours in a coal mine accident
  • Living 2 months with a smoker cancer, heart disease
  • Traveling 6000 miles 10.000 km by jet cancer due to increased background radiation
  • Drinking 0.5 liter of wine cirrhosis of the liver
  • Smoking 1.4 cigarettes cancer, heart disease

Such risks are better expressed using the related concept of a microlife.



                                     
  • MICROMORT is a computer program by Heisey and Fuller, 1985 used to estimate mortality rates, commonly used in ecological studies. Heisey, Dennis M.
  • daily proportional effect on expected length of life. Similar to the micromort one in a million probability of death the microlife is intended for
  • typhoon season MoRT, an album by Blut Aus Nord Mort, feminine form of Mar, a title of respect in the Syriac language Micromort a unit of risk of death
  • Coincidence Confirmation bias Gambler s fallacy List of eponymous laws Micromort Orders of magnitude probability Spurious relationship Synchronicity
  • Public understanding of risk, including promoting concepts such as the micromort a one in a million chance of death and microlife a 30 - minute reduction
  • Decision support Decision theory Influence diagram Management science Micromort Multiple - criteria decision analysis MCDA Optimal decision Stochastic
  • by death rate List of countries by life expectancy Maximum life span Micromort Mortality displacement Risk adjusted mortality rate Vital statistics Medical
  • of interest. A micromort is a unit of risk measuring a one - in - a - million probability of death from micro - and mortality Micromorts can be used to measure
  • Altruistic suicide Assisted suicide Emile Durkheim s Suicide 1897 Fatalism Micromort Nihilism Pessimism Johan Robeck Self - immolation Suicide attack Camus
  • Environmental Principles and Policies Health impact assessment Maximin principle Micromort Possible carcinogen Postcautionary principle Prevention of Disasters Principle
  • mortality Karōshi Maternal death Maternal mortality in fiction Memento mori Micromort Mortality displacement Mortality rate RAMR Mortality salience Perinatal
  • mortality Karōshi Maternal death Maternal mortality in fiction Memento mori Micromort Mortality displacement Mortality rate RAMR Mortality salience Perinatal
  • mortality Karōshi Maternal death Maternal mortality in fiction Memento mori Micromort Mortality displacement Mortality rate RAMR Mortality salience Perinatal